The Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC)[1] region faces the dual complexities of rapid urbanization coupled with a significant demographic shift towards an aging population. These dynamics present substantial hurdles for forthcoming regional economic developments. However, examining the unique characteristics and demographic profiles of the region's Indigenous Peoples unveils potential avenues of opportunity.

Note that although support is variable, some APEC economies are increasingly recognizing the vital role of Indigenous Peoples in the regions overarching trade and economic paradigm. In the margins of the 2023 Senior Officials Meeting (SOM3) in Seattle, Washington, U.S., APEC’s Economic Committee (EC) spotlighted a session themed “Efforts to Promote Economic Opportunity and Inclusion: A Case Study on Indigenous Peoples”. Sponsored by Canada and backed by several likeminded APEC economies, this session explored policy frameworks for Indigenous economic inclusion and shared insights from Indigenous businesses and tribal entities.

This article extends on OpinioNative’s discussion, by first unpacking the bigger picture around demographics and the prospect of megacities and their impacts on Indigenous Peoples. The next article will look more closely at the potential to leverage the demographic and cultural facets of Indigenous Peoples to bolster Indigenous MSMEs within the region's economic framework, particularly in the cultural, creative and care sectors.

The demographic challenge...and opportunity

The world's population, currently at 8 billion, is predicted by the United Nations (UN) to escalate to 8.5 billion by 2030, 9.7 billion by 2050, and 10.4 billion by 2100. [2]  This growth foregrounds the emergence of megacities—cities accommodating over 10 million inhabitants. The APEC region dominates in this arena, currently housing 16 of the world's 28 megacities. [3]  The broader Asia Pacific area accounts for 60 percent of the global population (approx. 4.3 billion people), with over 2 billion residing in urban areas, a figure predicted to swell to 3.3 billion by 2050.[4] Additionally, the APEC region is home to 70 percent of the world's Indigenous Peoples, numbering over 476 million. This exponential growth trajectory invariably raises concerns, especially concerning the implications for Indigenous communities amidst surging urbanization and the consequent rise of megacities.

By 2050, the APEC region is slated for momentous demographic transformations. From a current count of about 3 billion, the population is set to grow by an additional 2 billion in the next decade, reaching over 5 billion by the mid-21st century. A substantial segment of the population, approximately 1.3 billion, will be individuals aged 60 and above.[5]

However, the demographic narrative unfolds differently across cultural groups and economies.[6]  Indigenous populations, for instance, lean towards youthfulness. In New Zealand, the Māori population is strikingly younger than the general population, [7]  a trend mirrored in Indigenous nations in Australia, Canada, and the U.S.[8] These Indigenous Peoples are typically a decade younger in median age than their non-Indigenous counterparts and are witnessing population growth rates that outpace the general population.[9] [10]

Given the APEC region's dynamic demographic landscape, incorporating Indigenous Peoples in the conceptualization of regional strategies, both present and future, is vital. The coexistence of an elderly demographic and a vibrant Indigenous youth offers a unique opportunity to foster economic inclusion initiatives. By synergizing the wisdom of the elderly with the vibrancy of youth, there's potential to invigorate the care economy, fortify community bonds, and envision a future steeped in socio-cultural harmony. This demographic synergy emphasizes the integration of Indigenous communities, highlighting an era replete with potential and accentuating the importance of Indigenous-centric economic policies. However, the evolving demographics underscore the need for policies that resonate with the duality of age-infused wisdom and youthful innovation, further enhancing community resilience and endorsing peaceful coexistence while also addressing economic disparity and the risks associated with urbanization for Indigenous Peoples.

The imminent concerns about rapid urbanization and the advent of megacities

As the APEC region population is projected to surpass 5 billion by 2050, it brings with it the imminent rapid expansion of cities and urbanisation.

From a New Zealand perspective, Auckland is our largest city. We have a population of just under 1.7 million and are forecast to reach 2.45 million people by 2050. Those numbers are nowhere near the vicinity of a “megacity”.  But despite our comparatively small size – we are already experiencing the impacts of increased urbanization and the economic disparity that comes with it. We are experiencing a housing crisis, a failed public transport network, an overburdened public health system, a cost-of-living crisis, soaring food prices, growing community safety concerns, inadequate social services and like many APEC economies – a political system that cares more about the next 3 years in office than the next 500 years on this earth.

If we don’t address the looming prospect of our cities being built at a scale never seen on this planet in the name of “economic growth” then we put at risk the sustainable and inclusive economic future that APEC economies have been working toward.

Although megacities may attract the talent and draw international investment and wealth that are unmatched in scale by smaller cities, their size and scale are breeding grounds for ecological destruction during a climate crisis and for fuelling socio-economic inequity.[11] So as APEC seeks to advance its sustainable and inclusive economic and trade agenda, it must also look to the future and the impact megacities may have on impeding that agenda.

For Indigenous Peoples, the prospect of megacities and urbanization hits in all the wrong ways. We’ve experienced the persistent social, cultural and economic harm of urbanization and assimilation policies of the past that our communities continue to fight against today. As megacities continue to grow in population, the influx of people from diverse backgrounds may impact Indigenous Peoples in various ways.

The economic challenges for Indigenous Peoples as the number of megacities increase globally

As the number of megacities increases globally, Indigenous Peoples face a range of economic challenges that arise from the rapid urbanization and the unique socio-economic conditions prevailing in these urban centres.

Below are some key economic challenges that Indigenous Peoples could encounter - and that APEC economies must address - in the context of expanding megacities.

Expropriation and exploitation of our lands and resources

Urbanization frequently infringes upon Indigenous Peoples' ancestral territories, resulting in the expropriation of our lands and vital natural resources. This usurpation - especially for those Indigenous Peoples whose lands have already been expropriated through colonial occupation since settlers arrived on their territories - often benefits non-Indigenous populations, leading to detrimental consequences for Indigenous communities. Such encroachments not only displace our communities from our historical lands but also sever our ties to resources integral to their livelihoods. Moreover, this displacement can engender fragmentation within and amongst Indigenous groups, evident in contemporary legal disputes over territorial boundaries and, in some instances, the non-recognition of certain tribes in their ancestral territories. The growth of megacities, therefore, risks intensifying the challenges faced by Indigenous Peoples, exacerbating issues of land rights and resource access.

Embedded persistent racism, marginalization, and discrimination

Historical patterns suggest that Indigenous Peoples, within the context of urbanization and megacities, will grapple with discrimination and marginalization, stemming from the effects of structural racism, institutionalized prejudice, and systematic economic exclusion, effects rooted in colonization, assimilation, and urbanization. These forces have historically restricted, and continue to limit our equitable access to essential services such as education and healthcare, as well as economic opportunities, perpetuating a cycle of poverty and economic exclusion.

Additionally, there is often a noticeable deficit in Indigenous representation within economic decision-making forums, which often leads to policies that overlook our specific requirements and interests.

To counteract these challenges, it is imperative that APEC members work with Indigenous Peoples to create genuine partnership pathways to incorporate inclusive development policies and bodies tailored to the unique needs and ambitions of the regions Indigenous communities.

Structurally integrated socio-economic disparities

Indigenous Peoples already grapple with pervasive socio-economic disparities. Many are confronted with employment instability, resulting in diminished incomes and curtailed access to essential services, thereby increasing our susceptibility to the informal economy, further exacerbating socio-cultural and economic adversities.

Housing affordability emerges as a notable concern, as swift urban growth inflates housing prices, challenging economically marginalized Indigenous populations to secure affordable housing alternatives.

Educational disparities further compound these challenges. Despite education being a cornerstone for economic upward mobility, Indigenous Peoples in urban centres may encounter hurdles accessing quality education. These obstacles can arise from language discrepancies, culturally insensitive curricula, and an absence of resources catering to our distinct needs.

Furthermore, Indigenous Peoples often experience pronounced obstacles when seeking formal employment opportunities. Factors such as discrimination, misaligned skill sets with urban employment demands, and linguistic barriers can impede our access to stable job markets, culminating in elevated unemployment and income disparity.

The informal economy—often termed the "shadow," "underground," or "unregulated" economy—captures economic activities occurring outside governmental oversight and official documentation. Such engagements frequently lack formal contracts, evade legal protections, and operate predominantly on a small, localized scale with cash transactions. While offering adaptability and relying on traditional knowledge, it also exposes participants to exploitative conditions, insufficient wages, and employment insecurity.

Addressing the informal economy presents a conundrum for APEC economies. On one hand, formalization of such activities could amplify tax revenue and ameliorate labour conditions. Conversely, this could threaten job security or impinge upon the sector's inherent flexibility. Thus, a nuanced approach, balancing formalization with understanding the informal sector's intrinsic traits including the perspectives of Indignenous Peoples, is pivotal for fostering inclusive economic progression.

Disconnection from nature and worldviews

The advent of megacities may result in the involuntary displacement of Indigenous Peoples, engendering both socio-economic perturbations and a fracture of Indigenous Peoples' profound cultural bonds to their ancestral lands. Such urban migrations, particularly alluring to younger generations in pursuit of improved prospects, can instigate demographic imbalances, leaving rural territories with an aging population and potentially hampering the intergenerational transmission of Indigenous knowledge.

For Indigenous communities, our cultural worldviews are intimately intertwined with the natural world. Urbanized settings, therefore, can precipitate feelings of dislocation and alienation from our foundational roots impacting mental, social, cultural and physical wellbeing. Furthermore, urbanization can estrange Indigenous Peoples from their conventional vocations—like agriculture, hunting, and fishing—potentially undermining both our traditional economies and the preservation of our unique cultural identity.

Conclusion

In the face of escalating urbanization and the ensuing rise of megacities in the APEC region, there exists a pronounced dichotomy. While these developments pose substantial challenges to trade, economics, and the overall fabric of communities, they also uncover latent opportunities. The unique demographic makeup, characterized by a synergy between an aging general population and a burgeoning young Indigenous demographic, offers the potential for holistic economic and socio-cultural integration. The insights gleaned from sessions like those held at the 2023 Senior Officials Meeting (SOM3) underline the integral role of Indigenous Peoples in shaping the APEC's economic horizon. Yet, there are evident economic, social, and cultural hurdles that Indigenous communities face, including land expropriation, institutionalized discrimination, and urban-induced disconnects from nature and traditional livelihoods.

The sheer scale of urban growth across the region, coupled with a lack of inclusive policies, can exacerbate socio-economic disparities, and threaten the unique cultural tapestry that Indigenous Peoples contribute. To navigate this intricate landscape, it is imperative that APEC economies engage in proactive policymaking that both understands and embraces the demographic potential. Such an approach must prioritize the voices and perspectives of Indigenous Peoples, ensuring we are beneficiaries of and active contributors to the decision-making process. Emphasizing inclusivity, sustainable growth, and socio-cultural cohesion, the APEC region stands at a crossroads where the right blend of policies could harness the potential of its Indigenous Peoples, fostering economic resilience, and laying the foundation for a harmonized future.

In Part 2, the subsequent discussions will delve deeper into the opportunities for Indigenous MSMEs, particularly spotlighting the realms of culture, care, and creativity. By concentrating on these sectors, our exploration aims to unearth actionable solutions that bolster Indigenous business development and ensure our prominent role in the APEC region's economic story.

FOOTNOTES

[1]      APEC currently consists of 21 member economies mainly located in Southeast Asia and East Asia. All member economies comprise a total area of 62.87 million km² and about 2.97 billion people. This is 41.5 percent of the habitable area around the world and 37 percent of the world population. With an economic output of 61.491 trillion US dollars annually, they represent around 61.15 percent of the global economy. The value of all exported goods from these 21 countries was 14.127 trillion US dollars per year at last count. < https://www.worlddata.info/trade-agreements/apec.php#:~:text=The%20APEC%20is%20a%20trade,and%20about%202.97%20billion%20people>

[2]      United Nations. <https://www.un.org/en/global-issues/population>

[3]      Statista. Megacities in the Asia Pacific Region. <https://www.statista.com/topics/4855/megacities-in-asia-pacific/#topicOverview>

[4]     Asian Development Bank (ADB). “Adapting to Aging Asia and the Pacific” <https://www.adb.org/what-we-do/topics/social-development/aging-asia>; UNESCAP <https://www.population-trends-asiapacific.org/population-ageing>; UNESCAP <https://www.population-trends-asiapacific.org/demographic-dividend>; UNESCAP <https://www.population-trends-asiapacific.org/population-ageing>

[5]      ADB above n4.; UNESCAP <https://www.population-trends-asiapacific.org/population-ageing>; UNESCAP <https://www.population-trends-asiapacific.org/demographic-dividend>

[6]      ADB above n 4: “In some countries such as the People’s Republic of China, Sri Lanka, Thailand, and Viet Nam, this transition will happen very rapidly, and in others, such as Indonesia, it will not be as quick but they will end up with very large populations of older persons.”

[7]      New Zealand Ministry of Health. <https://www.health.govt.nz/our-work/populations/maori-health/tatau-kahukura-maori-health-statistics/tatauranga-taupori-demographics/age-structure#:~:text=Figures%201%20and%202%20show,18.0%25%20of%20non%2DM%C4%81ori>

[8]      In New Zealand, a third of our population is under 15 years old compared to only around 18 percent of the general population. Almost half of the Māori population is under the age of 29 years, compared to only 23 percent of the non-Māori population. < https://www.westpac.co.nz/assets/About-us/sponsorship/documents/The-Maori-economy-obstacles-and-opportunities-Westpac-NZ-Oct-2021.pdf>; A similar story is seen in Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander communities in Australia with almost the exact same figures as Māori compared to non-Indigenous groups. This also plays out in Canada and likewise, in the U.S., although for the U.S the age point is different, around 29 percent of Indigenous Peoples are under the age of 18Australia: One-third (33.1%) of the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population was under 15 years of age compared with 17.9% of non-Indigenous people in the same age group <https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/people/aboriginal-and-torres-strait-islander-peoples/estimates-aboriginal-and-torres-strait-islander-australians/latest-release#:~:text=Media%20releases-,Key%20statistics,under%2015%20years%20of%20age>; U.S.: Approximately 27% of AI/AN people are under the age of 18, compared to 21.9% of the total U.S. population is under the age of 18 <https://www.ncai.org/about-tribes/demographics>

[9]      New Zealand: The median ages for Māori men and women is 25 and 27 years respectively, compared with the general population at 37 and 39 years respectively < https://www.stats.govt.nz/information-releases/maori-population-estimates-at-30-june-2022/#:~:text=the%20median%20ages%20for%20males,reflecting%20a%20younger%20M%C4%81ori%20population>; U.S: The median age on reservations is 29, while the median age for the total U.S. population is 38; Canada: the average age of Indigenous People was 31.3 years in 2021 in comparison to 39.1 for non-Indigenous people.  

[10]    New Zealand: Between 2006 and 2018, the Māori population which grew by 27 percent – growing at over double the rate of non-Māori (at 11 percent) and one in three children in will identify as Māori by 2043 <https://www.westpac.co.nz/assets/About-us/sponsorship/documents/The-Maori-economy-obstacles-and-opportunities-Westpac-NZ-Oct-2021.pdf> and Statistics New Zealand (Stats NZ) <https://www.stats.govt.nz/news/one-in-three-children-projected-to-be-maori/>; Canada: First Nations, Inuit and Metis communities in Canada also witnessed a growth of 8 percent in their population between 2016 and 2021 < https://open.alberta.ca/dataset/487a7294-06ac-481e-80b7-5566692a6b11/resource/257af6d4-902c-4761-8fee-3971a4480678/download/tbf-2021-census-of-canada-indigenous-people.pdf>; Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS): In 2011, there were 669,900 people, representing 3% of the total Australian population. The estimated resident Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population of Australia at 30 June 2001 was 534,700 people. Between 2001 and 2011 the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population increased by 2.3% per year on average, compared with 1.5% for the total Australian population. The population of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Australians is projected to increase to between 907,800 and 945,600 people in 2026, at an average growth rate of between 2.0% and 2.3% per year. In comparison, the average growth rate of the total Australian population is projected to be between 1.5% and 1.8% per year over the same period. <https://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/products/c19a0c6e4794a3faca257cc900143a3d?opendocument>  

[11] Ramanath Jah. (2020). “Are megacities the best option for the future?”, Oberserver Research Foundation <https://www.orfonline.org/expert-speak/are-megacities-best-option-future/>